Euro-yen has recovered slightly from 30 April’s large drop in recent days amid ongoing moderate optimism of a resolution in the Gulf and comments from senior Japanese officials about being ready to intervene if necessary. The price remains very close to the record high of ¥188.
News of indirect negotiations between the USA and Iran continues to be inconsistent with the two sides sending mixed messages and threats and commenting on a range of points for peace. Sentiment doesn’t appear to favour a large reescalation for now with indices generally doing well and oil not showing consistent gains in recent sessions. Progress, or lack thereof, in the negotiations is a significant potential opportunity and risk for most major instruments.
Monetary policy broadly favours the euro for the time being with the European Central Bank (ECB) being 1.4% higher than the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Both central banks are widely expected to hike in June, which would take their main rates to 2.4% and 1% respectively.
Euro-yen has been in a sideways trend on the daily chart for all of 2026 so far. With 30 April’s large loss not pushing below the 100 SMA and several tails overlapping this area, this SMA is a likely support for now. Selling volume has increased since the end of April which might suggest losses in itself; the slow stochastic is closer to neutral though than overbought or oversold.
In the current situation of intervention from the BoJ likely to have occurred, it’s important to monitor USDJPY and EURUSD’s movements too because if the dollar generally declines and the euro strengthens, euro-yen has the opportunity to break out upward. However, if the yen remains generally weak against all other major currencies, the likelihood of a clear break above ¥188 would be much lower. A relatively conservative target around the all-time high might help to derisk buying somewhat in this situation.
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The opinions in this article are personal to the writer; they do not represent those of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
