This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.
9/03/2026
Highlights of the week: US inflation, UK GDP, US core PCE
Wednesday
- US Inflation rate at 12:30 GMT, with the consensus pointing to an increase of around 0.1% to 2.5% for February. If this is broadly accurate, it might not influence the Federal Reserve’s stance at its meeting next week, where, for now, the FedWatch tool shows a 97% probability that they will keep rates stable. If there is any significant surprise change in the actual figure, then it will respectively affect the dollar in the short term.
Friday
- British GDP growth at 07:00 AM GMT. The market consensus is that the figure will increase from 0.1% to 0.2% month over month. This might not have a major effect on the pound, since it is for January and might already be priced in; however, it would provide some hints about the overall economic performance of the British economy.
- Canadian unemployment rate at 12:30 GMT. The market is expecting a slight increase of around 0.1% in the February figure. This might have a minor negative effect on the loonie if the expectations are confirmed.
- U.S core PCE at 12:30 PM GMT. The market is expecting this figure to remain stable at 0.4% month over month, but any surprise at the time of publication would most likely create volatility across most dollar pairs.
- US GDP growth (2nd estimate) for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to decline to 1.4% against the previous figure of 4.4%. If these rather pessimistic expectations are met, it might lead to minor losses for the Dollar while supporting many of its instruments traded against it.
USOIL, daily
Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel as the war in the Middle East intensified and several major producers began cutting output. Supply fears escalated after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route, was halted, and energy infrastructure in the region was attacked. Additional upward pressure came as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reduced production, while Iraq also began shutting in output, tightening available supply.
The market is primarily focused on the risk that oil flows from the Middle East cannot move through Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, and as long as this disruption continues, prices are expected to remain elevated. Governments are responding to the surge, as G7 finance ministers discuss a coordinated release of strategic reserves to calm markets, while some countries are considering measures to protect consumers from rising fuel costs. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate, further adding to global energy market uncertainty.
On the technical side, the crude oil price corrected to the 78.6% monthly Fibonacci retracement level at the opening of the Asian session on Monday, showing some initial signs of a slowdown. Of course, a single candlestick does not show weakness of a rather aggressive bullish rally, especially if that candlestick is trading above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. This shows volatility increased, while the moving averages also validate the momentum. On the other hand, the Stochastic oscillator is in overbought conditions, but this does not necessarily indicate a slowdown or a reversal of the trend. Taking into account the Fibonacci levels, the first area of strong support might be seen around $100, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and also the psychological support of the round number, and a secondary support area might be found around $90, which is the area of the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Gold-dollar, daily
Gold declined sharply, falling as much as 3% to around $5,015 per ounce, as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising interest rate expectations pressured the metal despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The drop came as surging oil prices fueled inflation concerns, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer or potentially raise them, which is typically negative for non-yielding assets like gold.
A stronger U.S. dollar added further downward pressure, while liquidity-driven selling also weighed on gold as some investors sold the metal to raise cash during a broader selloff in global equities. Despite the recent pullback, gold remains about 18% higher this year, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank buying, and continued investor demand seeking protection against global economic and policy risks.
From a technical point of view, gold seems to be losing some steam and has been trading in a range-bound manner over the past week after finding sufficient resistance on the upper band of the Bollinger Bands early last week. The Bollinger Bands are also somewhat contracted, suggesting volatility might be slowing. The moving averages are still validating the bullish trend, while the Stochastic oscillator is near extreme oversold levels, hinting at a bullish correction in the upcoming sessions. For the time being, the first support area might be found at $5,000, as it combines the psychological support of the round number, the 50-day simple moving average, and the 38.2% daily Fibonacci retracement level.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness or Finance Feeds.
